Five reasons the Texans are AFC contenders including C.J. Stroud wide-open conference Cinderella status

Five reasons the Texans are AFC contenders including C.J. Stroud wide-open conference Cinderella status

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If you're like me, you can't help but be mesmerized by the darling this year, the .They Lenny Dykstra Jersey entered the season with 200-1 title odds. Only the were worse. Their rookie head coach and rookie QB didn't have much to work with, but here we are entering December and they are right in the thick of the AFC playoff race.They could do more damage than that, too, and become one of the NFL's best underdog stories in recent history.Here's five reasons why the Texans are contenders in the AFC:Let's start with the simple facts. The Texans are really good. If we were analyzing an NCAA Tournament resume we'd want to know things like their record, recent performance and notable wins and lo ses. Here goes nothing: 2023 Houston Texans Resume (6-5)6-3 in last nine games (each lo s by three or fewer points)Sixth-most time leading since Week 33-1 vs teams entering with winning recordBest wins: at JAX, at CINBad lo ses: at CARThat's a good looking resume. They are 6-3 in the last nine games. Their only lo ses have been on game-winning field goals as time expired vs. the and , plus last week's mi sed game-tying 58-yard field goal off the cro sbar from . They've controlled most of these games, ranking sixth in time lead over this span.They could easily be 7-2 or 8-1 in this stretch, which includes statement wins on the road by 20 in Jacksonville and in Cincinnati with a healthy . That's a confidence booster for a team that will need to win road games if they make the postseason.And of course, driving the dominance is a rookie QB. , who leads the NFL in pa sing yards per game and is third in yards per attempt. He could be the first rookie to finish top-three in MVP voting since Randy Mo s in 1998, and the first rookie QB to get a vote since Dan Marino in 1983. It's a QB-driven league so with one of the better signal callers in the NFL already, the Texans are legit. The Texans are also capable of making a run in the AFC and po sibly being the ' biggest threat in part due to the injury luck around the conference.The two biggest threats to the Chiefs entering the season may both mi s the playoffs. The lost Joe Burrow and the lost and for the season, plus are battling one heartbreaking lo s after another.The recently lost one of the NFL's better edge rushers in (torn Achilles) and are the only team who hasn't beaten a team entering with a winning record since the start of last October. The lost top target in . It's also hard to trust Baltimore based on Jackson's injury track record and one career playoff win.The lost for the season and would be their fourth different starting QB this year. The Chiefs are flawed themselves. There's clearly room for a new contender and Houston could be that team.Another reason I wouldn't rule out a Texans deep playoff run: They share key traits with recent Super Bowl teams. They have an explosive offense with great QB play, ranking top five in the NFL in yards per play and yards per pa s. The last 10 Super Bowl teams all ranked top 10 in each category.They can sustain drives. They are sixth in third down conversion rate. The last 14 Super Bowl teams ranked in the Clay Buchholz Jersey top half of the league. I credit Stroud and an underrated offensive line here. The Texans are the second-best team in ESPN's pa s block win rate this year, anchored by Pro Bowl LT .They have an average defense, which actually isn't a big red flag. A great offense is more important than great defense for recent Super Bowl teams. The Texans are 14th in scoring defense. Four of the last 10 Super Bowl teams have ranked 14th or worse. I do worry about Houston's pa s defense, ranking bottom 10 in third-down defense and yards per pa s allowed this year. But I'm optimistic enough with a pair of plus edge rushers (. and ) and a healthy . They have a positive turnover margin. Only five of the 46 teams to make the Super Bowl since 2000 had a negative turnover margin. Some would say C.J. Stroud is due for some interception regre sion, but I'm not so sure, he has the second-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate (2.0%) in the NFL.I wouldn't disqualify the Texans based on inexperience either. If the 2009 could make a Conference title game with , and the 2022 could be one step away from the Super Bowl with Mr. Irrelevant, I'm not ruling anything out here. The Texans could be the fifth team to ever make the postseason with a rookie QB (Stroud) and rookie head coach ().You don't have to look too far to find a team like this year's Texans who made a playoff run. Check out the similarities between the 2021 Bengals and 2023 TexansCinderellas: The Bengals had 150-1 preseason title odds. The Texans had 200-1 preseason title oddsHead coach under 40: Zac Taylor vs. DeMeco RyansYoung superstar QB: Joe Burrow (No. 1 pick) vs. C.J. Stroud (No. 2 pick)Explosive offense: Both top five in 25+ yard playsAverage defense: Bengals were 17th in scoring defense and Texans are 14thSlow start: Bengals started 7-6 and Texans are 6-5The Bengals made the Super Bowl in Burrow's second year. Perhaps Houston is just really ahead of schedule.Almost every major sports championship is being crashed by a Cinderella lately.2023 was an All-Wild Card World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks, who combined for the fewest regular-season wins in a fall cla sic. The Florida Panthers and Miami Heat made the 2023 Stanley Cup Final and 2023 Finals, respectively, as eight seeds.LSU just matched the worst seed (3) to win a Women's national basketball title.The 2023 Men's Final Four (featuring UConn, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Miami) was the first without a top-three seed. So was Super Bowl LVI between the Bengals and .The last NBA (Nuggets), (Golden Knights) and (Rangers) Aaron Nola Jersey champion all just won their first title. The Texans check off every box. Cinderella's shoe would certainly fit a team with 200-1 preseason title odds. The longest odds by a team to make the Super Bowl in the last 40 years were 150-1 by the 1999 Rams and 2021 Bengals. Heck, no team has even won a playoff game with 200-1 or longer preseason title odds since the 1981 .Of course, I'm getting a little carried away here. Houston has to make the playoffs first, but barring a C.J. Stroud injury, I think they will. Following their game against the in Week 13, they don't face another QB who began the year as their season's starter (, twice, whoever the Browns are starting and ).The Texans have a chance to write an incredible story here. They currently have 31-1 odds to win the AFC. Not a bad time to take a flier.
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